Module 12

 

The time series plot basically shows the charges just keep going up. Both years start lower in the beginning and rise consistently toward the end, with 2013 being higher across the board.

When I ran the SES model, the alpha came out to 0.82, which is pretty high. That means the model is putting a lot more weight on the most recent months, which makes sense because the spending keeps increasing. The error values (RMSE around 5.9, MAE around 4.8) were fine and showed that the model fit the data pretty well.

The forecasts leveled out at 62.42, which is what SES does since it doesn’t model trend directly. Basically, SES smooths everything out and gives one stable forecast based on the recent months. If I wanted the model to keep the upward trend going, I’d need Holt’s method, but for this assignment SES works.

Overall, the results match the plot: student credit card charges were rising for two straight years, and the smoothing model backs that up.

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